Bolivia! Civil Strife, Civil War, or a New Beginning? - A Critical Analysis

By Carlos Herrera - Bolivarian Activist
From AxisofLogic.com

Strategically placed in the heart of South America, the place from which Ernesto “Che” Guevara wanted to launch the next stage of the Latin American revolution after Cuba in 1966 - Here in Bolivia, the threat of territorial disintegration, continuing violence, social conflicts, terrorist attacks, mobilizations and marches and even a coup d état or a civil war - all these loom on the horizon! But these dark words may also be a foreshadowing of self-governance, independence and self-determination for the Bolivian people for the first time after 180 years of oppression and exploitation.

After more than a year and a half of President Mesa’s failure to govern, the  future of the country could well be defined by actions similar to those in 2003. At that time the courageous demonstrations of the Bolivians pressured then President, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada to resign.

The Constituent Assembly, the new Hydrocarbon Law, municipal elections and the call for a separatist referendum all encompass the demands being made in order to reach structural solutions for Bolivia.

Leader of the Movement to Socialism (MAS) and deputy, Evo Morales remarked,

"The incapacity of President Mesa, who has lost all authority to govern, is pushing the country to a confrontational situation characterized by uncertainty. We in the social movements are seeking national unity with autonomy for all the people while the oligarchy in Santa Cruz is proposing a policy of dividing the country to benefit a minority sector."

Bolivian mine worker shouts slogans during a protest against Bolivian President Carlos Mesa

On May 23rd, 2005, several thousands of coca farmers, factory workers, unemployed, indigenous people, the landless, students, women, farm workers and in fact, a whole cross section of the Bolivian poor will be arriving in La Paz - the seat of the  government - after the long march of 120 miles from Caracollo. Events are moving at breakneck speed: Various sectors rejected an invitation from the President to attend a Meeting for National Unity. At the offices of Petrobras in Santa Cruz a car bomb exploded and an unknown terrorist group claimed responsibility for this act.

Leaders of the Landless Movement were beaten up by members of the Youth  Union of Santa Cruz.

The Bolivian Workers Center (COB) called for a general strike and road blockades

Hydricarbon Law: The government refused to pass the new Hydrocarbons Law and once again there  are rumors of a fascist coup being organized. The Hydrocarbon Law is the center piece of this ongoing dispute in Bolivia. The social movements wanted a flat 50% royalty compared to the 18% proposed by the government. Parties agreed to a formula in which the 50% would be split into an 18% royalty plus 32% tax, neither of which was recoverable by the multinationals through loopholes in the statute.

The deal was approved by Congress. However, but when it went to the Senate for ratification, President Mesa made recommendations to the Senate which included the possibility of loophole-recovery of these fees by U.S.-based multinational corporations.

The Senate amended the law to include new language proposed by Mesa, ratified it, and sent it back to President Mesa to sign it into law. But then president Mesa, obviously fearful of the repercussions, would not give final approval to the law and turned it over to Congress!

Yesterday, May 18, President of the Congress, Hormando Vaca Díez stated,

“I have no other option but to sign this law in light of the refusal of  President Mesa”.

This action, as expected, triggered a powerful reaction from the social movements, led by Evo Morales. Now the social movements are demanding 50% royalty and the nationalization of all energy in Bolivia as well as the Bolivian State Energy Company, YPFB, taking control of production.

In an effort to divert attention from the controversy over Hydrocarbons Law, President Mesa immediately launched an ambitious, wide-ranging initiative to “rejuvenate the country including social programs”. This initiative was viewed with suspicion by the popular sectors, knowing that Mesa is fully aware that they are still mobilized in order to achieve their goal of sovereignty over the country’s natural resources.”

The need for participative democracy

All the social movements in Bolivia are pushing for a Constituent Assembly to achieve the following objectives:

Sovereignty and self-determination

Participative self-governance to include all sectors

A way to re-establish the country on the republican ideals upon which it was founded.

Many say that changing the structure of the state itself is the only democratic guarantee that can resolve the social conflicts in the country. They understand that the Constituent Assembly was not born in the Government Palace or on the desks of the bureaucrats and consultants. The Constituent Assembly did not commence with the self-appointed political class; instead, it was first conceived in the marches of the indigenous people which started in 1990 in demonstrations in the towns and countryside, again in April and September 2003, and yet again in January 2005.

From the point of view of the Bolivian people, the Constituent Assembly must be "for everyone, with everyone and by everyone". It is not just a question of reforming the present constitution, but in fact is designed to recuperate the initial premise of the Republic: "sovereignty resides in the people". It includes a transformation of political institutions to correct the current situation of exclusion and the lack of recognition of citizens’ political rights. It must be sovereign since its basis is the democratic will of the people; it must be autonomous in respect of the constituted powers and should be implemented freely and totally without being subordinated to any pre conditions. These elements will turn it into an expression of the maximum power of the State. It has to be participative since only participation can guarantee that the government will integrate the country. It is a mirror of national reality in that it is open to all social sectors, whatever their socio-economic standing.

For readers’ information, it was the same platform from which Hugo Chavez launched his political campaign in Venezuela when he was released from prison on March 1994.

The Separatist Agenda and Solidarity of the Excluded

The Unity Pact which draws together farmers, indigenous people and the landless with the sectors of the COB. They maintain that the oligarch conspiracy has the support of foreign powers: the oil multinationals and sectors of the traditional political class with the sole objective of impeding the Constituent Assembly. To recap from earlier articles in this series, the Mesa regime wants to sever the gas-rich Bolivian state of Santa Cruz from the rest of the country. They are attempting to do this with a referendum that will only be held in Santa Cruz. Those in the Unity Pact maintain that this referendum will not reflect any national consensus. Their position reinforces our previous suspicions that it the referendum is little more than a vulgar separatist movement to benefit the rich of that state, denying the rest of Bolivia ownership and benefit of their natural resources.

Try to imagine the George Bush regime in Washington proposing legislation that would allow one of the united states to secede from the union with the intention of selling off it’s natural resources to foreign, multinational corporations for the exclusive benefit of a wealthy few in that state!

Since starting this series on Bolivia, as observers, we have consistently stated that the Santa Cruz separatist movement could be the spark that ignites a civil war, and now important social and workers leaders are voicing this prospect.

The factory leader and the spokesman for the Gas Coordinator, Oscar Olivera warned that the secessionist proposals made by sectors of the Santa Cruz oligarchy would lead to a "civil war" since it is an attack on national unity.

The leaders of the social movement warned that the Santa Cruz referendum gives each department or state the right to "dispose freely of its natural  and financial resources". All the social movements are fully aware of the separatist nature of this ploy as expressed in the binding legal characteristics being espoused.

One of their leaders stated:

"The referendum for autonomy in Santa Cruz is blatantly unconstitutional since it will impose transcendental reforms on the National Constitution, which does not recognize the referendum either as a procedure or legal means by which to reform the Constitution itself". 

It should be understood that none of the social sectors is opposed to discuss the demand for autonomy. But they will not accept impositions which only intend to close the path to a more democratic scenario - a process that would allow debate and resolution to the key question facing the nation: the Constituent Assembly. The separatist referendum has been put forward by powerful groups in Santa Cruz and they want it to take place on August 12th to coincide with the municipal elections. Faced with the rejection of the majority of the population, sectors of the Santa Cruz oligarchy are promoting the referendum based on the following question:

"Do you agree that a constitution for autonomous departments (states) be established in the country with the effective transfer of all powers and attributions and which will also cover in the territorial jurisdiction in  question, the ability to dispose freely of its resources, elect its authorities and enjoy its own administration?"

Autonomy: A document published in the national press by the Civic Committee of Santa Cruz, states that legislation covering natural resources of important strategic value, such as hydrocarbons, minerals, water, rain forest and the earth would be "developed" in the departmental governments. What in fact does this “autonomous” process really mean? The term "autonomy" sounds like “independence” and “freedom”. But independence, freedom and autonomy for whom and from what? In this case, “autonomy” means that in each of the 3 branches of the Bolivian government – Legislative, Judiciary and Executive would function on a local level while national authorities would have only a very limited role to play. That this move is designed to set the stage to sever Santa Cruz from Bolivia is transparent for everyone with eyes to see. One cannot help but wonder about the real identities of the script writers behind the scene who put the label “autonomous” on this proposal.

This autonomous model, proposed by the oligarchy, is a step on from the models in other Federal States such as Brazil, Argentina and Venezuela. In those nations the legislation that governs natural strategic resources is completely in the hands of the national governments and not the state legislatures. On this basis, it is perfectly clear to the social movements that the pretension of the Santa Cruz elites is unconstitutional, anti democratic and will no doubt harm unity and national sovereignty. It will also remove Bolivia’s natural energy resources from state control and could lead to the multinationals negotiating even more concessions from the proposed “autonomous” departmental authorities.

The binding nature of the departmental characteristics contained in the referendum proposal means that the majority vote in one department will go against the popular will in the rest of the country. For this reason, Bolivia could be fragmented and it is well known that the energy multinationals, and an important part of the Santa Cruz business community, have wide experience in meddling in countries’ internal affairs, as well as dividing nations and even provoking wars.

Widespread implications for Bolivia and South America

Faced with this complicated situation in Bolivia, the government, the neoliberal parties and the multinationals are moving their pieces to avoid the passing of the new hydrocarbon law – a law that would guarantee a 50% payment to the people of Bolivia for extracted natural resources. On the other hand, the popular movements are united, demanding that the law goes into the statute books.

The COB* leader, Jaime Solares, has adopted a radical position saying that when the demonstrations, strikes and blockades for the nationalization of oil and gas begin, they will also close parliament and demand the resignation of President Mesa. It’s important to note that Bolivians have just witnessed the dethroning of President Gutierrez in Ecuador as a result of massive protests by the people.

Since Monday May 16th, rural and urban teachers are on indefinite strike and have been joined by health workers. The population of El Alto has been mobilized in La Paz and is threatening to blockade the main routes and stop the delivery of produce to the cities.

Leaders state the purpose of the march is,

"For Unity, the Constituent Assembly, the Hydrocarbons and Autonomy for all the People" and has attracted participants from all social sectors. Protesters from El Alto are threatening a hunger strike and an indefinite work stoppage as further means of pressuring the government.

Evo Morales summed up the situation facing President Mesa,

"He can continue defending the interests of the multinationals, the oligarchy and the corrupt political class or listen to the demands of the majority of the population, which are the indigenous peoples, farmers, workers and the poor. There is no other alternative!

The social movements have appealed to all parties on the left. They are also appealing to the Armed forces and the National Police Force to join this great social movement to preserve the unity of the nation. Both, the Bolivian people and military witnessed the Venezuelan military stand up for the people and turn against the fascists in 2002. So the model has been established.

The wider implications of what many people regard as a Bolivian problem involve fears that that the project of the Unity of South American Nations would be strangled at birth. This would go down very well in the demoralized US State Department, following other failures to prevent its loss of influence in South America. The failed South American missions of Donald Rumsfeld and Condaleeza Rice in the last 6 weeks have only added injury to insult. So we can bet that U.S. officials are quite busy and will pull out all stops to defeat the Bolivian people with these measures. As mentioned in previous articles, like Ecuador, Bolivia is a vital square in this three dimensional geopolitical chess game.

Time is Running Out

Time is running out again for President Mesa but we also cannot ignore the vulnerability of the social movements trying to save Bolivia from dismemberment as the referendum date of August 12th approaches. The legality of this referendum on Santa Cruz autonomy may go to the Supreme Court. However, any "declaration of independence" by the Santa Cruz puppets of the US and the multinationals could bring about heinous consequences for the whole of Bolivia and Santa Cruz in particular. The oligarchs know the risks involved and probably underestimate the will of the popular movements to react, as happened in Venezuela during the April 2002 coup d état.

In effect, this secessionist action in Santa Cruz is a coup - engineered within a bastard interpretation of the National Constitution, like it or not. The real reason behind it is as common to Santa Cruz as it was to Venezuela - oil and gas. The Hydrocarbons Law, the secessionist referendum  and the Constituent Assembly are all intertwined as integral parts of  Bolivia’s destiny.

The key players are the Bolivian people and their indomitable will for real independence and freedom after 180 years of exploitation. This historical context should not be disregarded - least of all by the US inspired oligarchs since they appear to have no conscience or determination to decipher their historical roots and cultural codes going back centuries before the Spanish even showed up.

In the next article in this series, as well as following the events that are unfolding, I will analyze claims of untapped oil and gas reserves on Santa Cruz territory, which is the pragmatic reason behind this unpatriotic secessionist movement in the richest department of Bolivia.

Whatever happens in the short term, the multinationals and their paid oligarchs in Bolivia would be well advised not to underestimate the power and will of the people!

*COB - Central de Obreros Bolivianos Bolivian Workers Central - literally, "Trade union movement"

May 19, 2005

Reposted by Bulatlat

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