ANALYSIS
A Battered Presidency
The deteriorating
economic conditions, the political rifts in the ruling elite, the growing
clamor for the President to resign and the surge of the revolutionary
movement in the countryside will haunt Macapagal-Arroyo no end in the
months ahead. Her options are getting narrower.
By Bobby Tuazon
Bulatlat
Badly bruised by
charges of corruption, illegal gambling and unabated violence, the
Macapagal-Arroyo administration is by all indications headed for a
disaster. Its plummeting popularity rating based on surveys and a keen
reading of the public pulse only shows a deeper wound – a political
support that’s getting narrower by the day. Save for the military – which
the President herself cannot rein in – the fragile coalition of parties in
Congress and U.S. President George Bush, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo cannot
count on a solid political base she could mobilize to take her social and
economic agenda forward. Remove the trappings of the presidential
leadership – the official statements, publicized visits in the provinces
and overseas travels – and you are left with a president who is unable to
govern anymore.
When Macapagal-Arroyo
was thrust into the presidency following the unseating of Joseph Estrada
in January 2001 and with a pledge to the broad oust-Estrada movement to
reform the government, she took on the reins of power that was already
weakened by corruption, crime syndicates inside and
outside government, fiscal deficit and other serious economic
|
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo at a mass for Pope Benedict XVI at
the Manila Cathedral, April 26
Photo by
Aubrey SC Makilan |
woes. The organized Left – the major force
that played a central role in Estrada’s ouster – had pledged its support
for her but only on principled grounds – that she start thoroughgoing
reforms and heed the demands for genuine land reform, to uphold national
sovereignty, to address the issue of human rights violations squarely and
to increase labor wages, among others.
All through the more
than three years of her presidency, Macapagal-Arroyo – herself a member of
the traditional ruling elite – pursued policies that were anything but
pro-people, deepened the country’s ties with the United States along the
master-and-slave tradition, and began to deal with progressive and
revolutionary forces with a mailed fist.
Extended crisis
As a result, the
President’s pro-elite and pro-globalization policies have only aggravated
rural poverty and urban unemployment and triggered an unprecedented
financial crisis. The crisis has extended to other realms: in education,
where the dropout rate at all levels has risen while new graduates cannot
find jobs; as well as in the health, housing and other sectors.
Agricultural production has been badly hit turning the country into a food
importer and its food security continually threatened. Public surveys
reveal the dire times: the poverty threshold has increased and so is the
number of people going hungry everyday. About 12 percent of the people –
up from 10 percent a few years ago – say they will support calls for a
change in government. Six out of 10 want the President to be replaced now.
It is also in the
region of political and foreign policy where disastrous consequences have
resulted for which Macapagal-Arroyo should be held accountable. Her blind
support for Bush’s war on terror that was, in the first place, based on
fabricated lies deepened the country’s economic and military dependence on
the United States, restored U.S. military presence and dragged the poor
country into Pentagon’s global wars of aggression. Her own war on terror
in the Philippines has boosted the military’s brinkmanship particularly in
security affairs as well as in peace negotiations with the Marxist and
Moro revolutionary forces. At least 10 agreements already forged with the
National Democratic Front of the Philippines – agreements that would have
given peace a chance – cannot be implemented because the Macapagal-Arroyo
government has chosen to dishonor these by insisting on the Left to
capitulate with another pressure to boot – the liquidation of alleged and
unarmed legal personalities of the NDFP.
The war has also
renewed the campaign of political repression targeting in particular
legitimate people’s organizations and political dissenters in all walks of
life – progressive legislators, activists, journalists, church people,
human rights volunteers, lawyers, women, youth and others. Part of the
armed crackdown is to restore fascist rule by legislating a super
anti-terrorism act that aims to curtail civil liberties and force
legitimate progressive organizations into the underground.
Most corrupt, most dangerous
It is under Macapagal-Arroyo
that the Philippines has remained in the top list of the most corrupt
countries in the world and as the most dangerous country ever for
activists, journalists, lawyers, rights watchdogs, the clergy and
legislators. Rotten to the core, the regime’s oppressive policies and
inept leadership have made Macapagal-Arroyo the Filipino people’s major
thorn – although the more perceptive observer can also say she is a
temporary aberration in a political and economic system that has long been
in a terminal crisis.
Be that as it may,
signs are building up revealing widespread skepticism about Macapagal-Arroyo’s
ability to stay in power, serious rifts in the ruling elite and public
disillusionment not only in the President but also in the present
government as an institution. There have been major cabinet resignations
in recent months, the most recent of which is that of Haydee Yorac of the
Presidential Commission on Good Government (PCGG). Yorac’s resignation and
the recent jueteng scandal boosted allegations of corruption in government
and links to crime syndicates involving presidential relatives, some
cabinet officials as well as political, military and police allies of
Macapagal-Arroyo. Church leaders, among them at last eight Catholic
archbishops and bishops, have also aired their disgust over similar
reports including the culture of impunity that has resulted in the string
of killings taking place all over the country.
As expected, the
confluence of these events and the upsurge of mass protests spearheaded by
the recent nationwide transport strike and the May 1 indignation rallies
were seized by anti-Arroyo groups from the political elite to call for the
ouster of the President and the establishment of a military junta. But the
call by the Coalition for National Salvation backfired even before it
could take off partly due to some of its leaders’ bias against Leftist
politics. Former Defense Secretary Fortunato Abat, said to be close to
former President Fidel V. Ramos, thumbed down proposals to join the Labor
Day rally in Manila. The big May 1 rally at Liwasang Bonifacio, led by the
Kilusang Mayo Uno (KMU or May 1st Movement) and other militant
multisectoral organizations, called for the ouster of Macapagal-Arroyo
raising prospects that this could lead to yet another people power.
It would be sheer
speculation now to entertain ideas that the country will likely see
another president thrown out of power – possibly within the next two
years. But each period of acute crisis that Filipinos have been confronted
with has always led to a president being ousted from office – the
strongman Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and Joseph Estrada in 2001. One thing
is certain though: the deteriorating economic conditions, the political
rifts in the ruling elite, the growing clamor for the President to resign
and the surge of the revolutionary movement in the countryside will haunt
Macapagal-Arroyo no end in the months ahead. Her options are getting
narrower. Bulatlat
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