Next Target: Iran
by Richard M
Bennett
www.globalresearch.ca
AFI Research Database
on Intelligence, National Security and Defence, January 18 2005
It is now widely
considered almost inevitable that the United States will target Iran next.
Whether this is in
the form of a full scale invasion with the intention of regime change, in
which case it will probably be delayed until some degree of stability has
been enforced on Iraq or it could take the form of a short sharp air
campaign designed to destroy as much as possible of Iran's Nuclear,
Missile and Command Control infrastructure.
This latter course,
the neo-cons in Washington are apparently convincing themselves, would
also seriously undermine the conservative anti-American element of Iran's
present leadership.
Iran is well aware
that despite years of effort put into attempts to both harden and hide
vital sections of its scientific research and weapons programs, it still
remains highly vulnerable to any high tech or sustained American air
assault.
Abandon hostile
policy, Iran tells US
Nor is America the
only nation seen as a threat by Tehran. Israel with its large and
effective fleet of long range F15 and F16 strike aircraft equipped with
sophisticated weaponry is capable of delivering a devastating blow to
Iran's military capability.
Israel too has gained
major new tactical advantages as its aircraft can now operate safely over
a compliant Jordan and an occupied Iraq.
The Israeli air force
is also to be the recipient of an enormous boost to its offensive
capability with the delivery of some 5,000 US 'smart' air launched weapons
including some 500 so-called 'bunker-busters' capable of penetrating
reinforced concrete or deep underground facilities before exploding.
Given Israel's
already substantial holdings of such weapons, this increase in its
inventory would allow a sustained assault with or without further US
involvement Israel is unlikely to miss out on the chance of destroying the
only serious potential Islamic nuclear threat to its existence if and when
Washington gives the appropriate signal.
Israel
ready to bomb Iran plant
Iran finds itself in
the invidious situation that while it is a committed Islamic state, it
does not see itself as an integral part of the Arab world.
Indeed Tehran is
fully aware that many in the wider Arab world, not just the Gulf states,
actively dislike Iran
and have good historical reasons for fearing their militarily strong and
assertive neighbour.
Iran therefore has
few genuine allies and while many Arab nations will be uncomfortable with
growing US influence in the region, they would at the same time rather
enjoy seeing Iran's increasing military power severely reduced.
Iran on the other
hand believes that as a major nation for many centuries it has the same
rights of national defence as Britain, the United States, India or for
that matter Israel.
This includes the
possession of advanced strategic missiles systems and a nuclear weapons
capability, and much of the leadership in
Tehran
bitterly resents what it sees as a Western bias that allows a gross and
growing imbalance in the Middle East with Israel being allowed, if not
encouraged to become a regional nuclear superpower.
Iran
clarifies stand on Kashmir
Iran has been at the
receiving end of continuing US interference in its political system for
over half a century.
In 1953 a joint
US-British intelligence operation to subvert the legally elected
government of Premier Muhammad Mossadegh led to a successful coup and the
restoration of a dictatorial pro-Western regime, while since the Islamic
revolution of 1978-79 which finally removed the Shah, US attempts to
either covertly influence or subvert the government of Iran have
multiplied.
Tehran is fully aware
that in recent months the CIA and exile Iranian groups have redoubled
their clandestine operations within Iran to identify potential targets, to
create civil unrest and to subvert the officer corps of the army and air
force. US success in neutralising large numbers of senior Iraqi commanders
has been noted with alarm in Iran and indeed the CIA has been in contact
with senior Iranian military personnel for several years and is believed
to have developed a number of highly valuable operations to undermine
Iran's defences.
Bush favours
regime change in Iran
However, and
crucially, they are believed to have so far failed in similar attempts
with the Islamic Republican Guards or Pasdaran.
The defensive course
that the Iranian government has apparently decided on is to ensure a
higher degree of integration between the Pasdaran and regular army
formations in potential conflict situations and to increase both the
penetration of the army by the internal security branch of the
intelligence service, SAVAMA, and vastly increase the numbers of trusted
Pasdaran officers positioned at brigade and divisional-level headquarters
to watch for any signs of treachery by regular officers, much in the
manner of commissars or political officers that the Soviets used to
deploy.
In a parallel move
the Iranian government is believed to have already moved hundreds, if not
thousands, of trusted Islamic officers and Pasdaran fighters into the
Shi'ite areas of Iraq in order to be able to create a massive subversive
campaign behind US lines in the event of an attack on their country.
Iran has also made
considerable efforts to ensure the survival of its political and military
leadership in the event of war.
Though regularly
denied in Washington, it would appear that specialist task forces formed
with CIA paramilitaries and members of the Delta Force, as well as the
little known 'Gray Fox' units of the US army's highly secretive
intelligence support activity or ISA have operated as dedicated
assassination squads in both Afghanistan and Iraq.
US accuses Iran of
harbouring terrorists
The determination to
kill significant numbers of the leadership and paralyze the chain of
command at the outset of a conflict by smart bombs, Cruise missiles,
explosive devices or bullets is now a well established US strategy. The
Iranian leadership will undoubtedly be heavily targeted in the same manner
in the event of war.
SAVAMA are now
believed by some observers to have a dedicated program in place to both
protect the nations command structure and significantly, also to be in a
position to threaten some form of retaliation against Western leaders.
It is self-evident
that Iran does not see itself as a pariah state or in serious breach of
any international agreement, and while still vehemently protesting its
position, Tehran has shown itself prepared to make what on paper at least,
appear to be concessions to avoid conflict. It was reported on November 14
that Iran had notified the UN nuclear watchdog that it is prepared to
suspend uranium enrichment and linked activities in order to dispel
American suspicions that it is actively seeking to build nuclear arms.
Iran
agrees to nuclear freeze
Whether this is a
genuine step away from confrontation or just a response to the re-election
of George W Bush is unclear.
However the
resignation of Secretary of State Colin Powell and his replacement by
Condoleezza Rice,
the president's
present national security adviser, will inevitably see the removal of a
major moderating influence on foreign policy and possibly change the
balance of power in Washington in favour of a more aggressive and
assertive US policy towards not only Iran, but North Korea, China and
Russia as well.
From Tehran's
viewpoint its status in Washington now appears to be that of a domino
waiting to fall.
As Iran's leadership
looks outwards it both sees and fears the ever tightening ring of US
military bases being created around it in the Gulf, Pakistan, Afghanistan,
the former Soviet Central Asian states, Turkey and now Iraq.
The latter in
particular is strategically highly significant with its long and highly
vulnerable land border. Iraq is the natural jumping off point for any
future invasion force and a prolonged insurgency tying down large numbers
of US troops must be in Tehran's interests.
However short of a
significant climb down by Iran on both Weapons of Mass Destruction and its
overt support for Hezbollah and what Washington considers to be Islamic
terrorist groups or a major and unlikely reversal of US foreign policy,
then some form of conflict now seems inevitable.
Iran's recent testing
of the long range Shehab-3 missile system gives it the basis of a reliable
and accurate strategic capability.
Neither America nor
Israel will be tempted to delay action until such systems become fully
operational.
Iran is therefore
likely to be faced with very tough decisions within the next few months,
and those decisions could well change the face of the Middle East forever.
(c) Richard M
Bennett Website
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/alan-turnbull/afi-research.htm
January 19, 2005
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