The
Empire in the Year 2005
By
James Petras
www.globalresearch.ca
Posted by Bulatlat
World
developments in 2005 will be determined by the major events and tendencies
in 2004.
First and foremost, 2004 demonstrated in the most dramatic and definitive
manner that the US imperial military machine could be defeated.
The
Iraqi resistance has proven that the US Empire is not invincible. With
over 1500 combat deaths, close to 25,000 disabled soldiers and over 35,000
suffering severe "mental illnesses", the US occupation army is incapable
of bringing the colonial war to a victorious conclusion. The US colonial
forces and their satellites face over 100 attacks a day throughout the
country. Reliable reports from returning soldiers suggest that
demoralization and disaffection is all pervasive. In contrast, the Iraqi
resistance is growing, as thousands of new volunteers enter into combat –
95% of which are Iraqis.
The
Iraqi resistance and the US weakness means that it is unlikely that the US
will launch a major land war in any major ‘enemy’ country in 2005 – (Iran,
Syria, Venezuela). The declining fortunes of the US colonial war and the
increased withdrawal of satellite forces (Hungary, Poland, Ukraine) will
provoke a major debate in 2005. Several leading Democrats, including
Hilary Clinton, Republicans and Zionists are calling for deepening the war
and calling up more troops – up to 100,000. Most of the Congressional
"liberal" critics of Rumsfeld are more bellicose, more militarist: 2005
will see greater US military involvement in Iraq, more casualties and
increasing opposition from the families of veterans, returning soldiers
and "average Americans."
During early 2005 the US economy will continue to expand based on external
financing and speculative earnings. The precipitous decline of the dollar
in 2004 will accelerate in 2005, leading to greater flight from dollar
reserves. By mid-2005, we can expect a major crisis in the dollarized
economy, a severe decline in US stocks and a general sell-off of devalued
dollars by Japan, and possible China. This is likely to provoke a general
economic crisis, which will weaken the domestic foundations of the US
Empire.
Elite conflicts within the US will intensify on an unprecedented scale.
The "new militarists" (liberal Democrats, neo-Conservatives and Zionists)
will confront the Bush/Rumsfeld "weakness" in the Middle East. The
professional military and security forces (FBI) will challenge
Zionist/Neo-Conservative control of Pentagon policy. Arrests and trials of
leaders of the major Israeli lobby, AIPEC, accused of spying for Israel
will take place and may provoke divisions among the major Jewish
organizations. Equally important, there will be heightened conflict
between the Neo-Conservative ideologues in the Pentagon and major US
multinationals and bankers over China policy in 2005. As China expands,
its economic reach overseas, securing access to energy and raw material
resources, the Neo-Conservatives (and their "human rights" allies) will
demand a more aggressive political and military confrontation. In
contrast, the realists on Wall Street realize that China’s purchase of US
bonds is crucial in preventing a collapse of the dollar; US investments in
China total over $300 billion dollars and fifty percent of Chinese exports
to the US are by US multi-national corporations.
The external military and economic crisis and the inter-elite conflicts
will stimulate an increase in social protest from a revived anti-war
movement. However the trade union bureaucracy will remain an isolated,
impotent, inactive force, representing only 8% of the private sector. Most
"progressive intellectuals" will continue to protest the war in Iraq but
will still refuse to confront the "new militarists" especially among the
Pentagon Zionists and liberal war-mongers, like Clinton.
Europe and China will continue to compete and collaborate with the US
Empire, gaining advantages with US adversaries like Iran and Syria, and
competing for control over strategic oil and raw material sources. In 2004
China signed important investment and trade agreements with Brazil,
Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile, Cuba and Russia which guarantee
large-scale, long-term supplies of energy, minerals and agricultural
products, and entry into their industrial and consumer markets. Europe and
Japan are investing heavily in Iran, Russia, Libya and Africa to secure
energy supplies. This inter-imperialist competition deepens Latin
America’s dependence on its traditional role in the international division
of labor as a supplier of raw materials and importer of industrial goods.
This is particularly the case with China, which is mainly an investor in
non-renewable extractive industries to fuel its industrial economy. The
Latin American agreements with China, while diversifying markets, follow
the exact colonial pillage, which was introduced by Spain, expanded by the
US and is now practiced by China’s newly emerging global empire.
In Latin America, the US will continue to focus on Colombia and a
political-military victory against the popular guerrilla forces. They will
increase the US mercenary military presence, exercise greater direct
supervision of elite Colombian troops and deepen collaboration with
Ecuadorian, Venezuelan and Brazilian defense ministries and security
forces to tighten the external "encirclement" of the guerrillas while
pursuing a murderous internal policy of emptying the countryside of
peasants. US multi-national oil companies will intensify their presence in
Latin America, especially in Mexico, Venezuela, Argentina and Ecuador,
reaching major "joint" exploration agreements, highly favorable to the US.
Politically the US will continue to pressure the Chavez regime in
Venezuela and the Kirchner government in Argentina to move toward greater
accommodations on domestic and foreign policies. In both regimes, US
covert influence is present in the highest spheres of the armed forces,
foreign ministries and security forces. The US can be expected to conduct
a "two track policy" of supporting the extreme right on the outside (Macri,
Menem and Murphy in Argentina and the pro-coup Convergencia in Venezuela)
and the so-called "moderates" within the regimes.
The US will continue to give strong support to the neo-liberal regimes in
Brazil, Bolivia, Peru and Ecuador but will also work closely with the
neo-liberal opposition.
Given the overall weak military position of the US due to the situation in
Iraq, the US will work even closer with the Latin American military and
security forces to repress rising political opposition.
Washington will focus on pressuring Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela to
weaken their commercial and security ties with Cuba either via
"inter-American" agreements or via "security co-operation with the US
client regime in Colombia.
The main challenge to the US and its political clients in Latin America in
2005 will come from a multiplicity of new and renewed forces: Organized
workers in Argentina; workers and unemployed workers and peasant groups in
Bolivia; the new trade union ‘CONLUTA’ in Brazil along with militant
sectors of the MST and sectors of the public employees unions; the revived
Indian movement CONAIE in Ecuador and an expected major counter-offensive
by the popular and guerrilla movements in Colombia. In the electoral
movement arena, Lopez Obrador’s candidacy for President and the formation
of a "transversal" independent alliance of workers, peasants and civic
groups could lead to a heightened political polarization in Mexico with
important political implications. In Venezuela there is likely to be
greater polarization between the popular base of the Chavista movement and
important sectors of the "moderate" leadership.
The year 2005 will generally witness the "end of illusions" about the
"center-left" electoral alliances, new political polarizations in
Venezuela, Brazil and Mexico. Washington, tied down by its Middle East and
Asian Wars, will rely on political clients, like Lula and Uribe to carry
the ball and, in an emergency, the local security forces.
As the
New Year begins however the military and economic prospects for the US
Empire are worse than a year ago. We can foresee a "New Year" of deepening
wars, economic crisis and growing direct action.
In Iraq,
like in Vietnam, more defeats will lead to greater escalation of the war –
more soldiers, more arms, greater use of torture and generalized massacres
and destruction of Iraqi society. US total war will turn a national
liberation struggle into a "war of the entire people."
US
client regimes, increasingly isolated at home and sensing a major defeat
in Iraq, will increasingly abandon the US. In 2005, puppet regimes,
elections will come and go, but the war will grind on more ferocious than
even – forcing the US public to face the reality that their government can
not, will not win: that they, the people are paying the costs for a losing
war. But Washington will not retreat: the civilian militarists have
invested all their ideological beliefs in the US as an invincible,
unipolar power; the Pentagon-Zionists are committed to establishing
unchallenged Israeli power in the region even if it means weakening the US
Empire in the rest of the world. The political class (Democrats and
Republicans) and most generals believe that a withdrawal – a defeat – will
encourage other countries to challenge US world supremacy. The logic of
Washington for 2005 is that the War must continue, victory must be secured
– no matter what the cost in human lives, Iraqi or US. The treasury and
the budget is hostage to the Logic of War: to defend the image of imperial
invincibility, the empire will be brought to its knees.
December 24, 2004
Rebelión
, 24
December 2004
www.globalresearch.ca 14 December 2004
The URL of this article is:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/PET412A.html
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