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Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq:
Cluster
sample survey
by Les Roberts,
Riyadh Lafta, Richard Garfield, Jamal Khudhairi, Gilbert Burnham
Lancet, 29 October 2004
29 October
2004
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/LAN410A.html
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Editor's note
We bring to the
attention of our readers this authoritative study of Les Roberts et al of
the John Hopkins School of Public Health on the deaths of Iraqi civilians,
published by The Lancet (Online Medical Journal based in the UK).
The study
confirms that:
"Violent deaths
were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed
to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition
forces were women and children."
"Making
conservative assumptions, we think that about 100,000 excess deaths, or
more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq,"
--------------------------------------------
Background
In March, 2003,
military forces, mainly from the USA and the UK, invaded Iraq. We did a
survey to compare mortality during the period of 14·6 months before the
invasion with the 17·8 months after it.
Methods A
cluster sample survey was undertaken throughout Iraq during September,
2004. 33 clusters of 30 households each were interviewed about household
composition, births, and deaths since January, 2002. In those households
reporting deaths, the date, cause, and circumstances of violent deaths
were recorded. We assessed the relative risk of death associated with the
2003 invasion and occupation by comparing mortality in the 17·8 months
after the invasion with the 14·6-month period preceding it.
Findings The
risk of death was estimated to be 2·5-fold (95% CI 1·6-4·2) higher after
the invasion when compared with the preinvasion period. Two-thirds of all
violent deaths were reported in one cluster in the city of Falluja. If we
exclude the Falluja data, the risk of death is 1·5-fold (1·1-2·3) higher
after the invasion. We estimate that 98000 more deaths than expected
(8000-194000) happened after the invasion outside of Falluja and far more
if the outlier Falluja cluster is included. The major causes of death
before the invasion were myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents,
and other chronic disorders whereas after the invasion violence was the
primary cause of death.
Violent deaths
were widespread, reported in 15 of 33 clusters, and were mainly attributed
to coalition forces. Most individuals reportedly killed by coalition
forces were women and children. The risk of death from violence in the
period after the invasion was 58 times higher (95% CI 8·1-419) than in the
period before the war.
Interpretation
Making conservative assumptions, we think that about 100000 excess deaths,
or more have happened since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Violence accounted
for most of the excess deaths and air strikes from coalition forces
accounted for most violent deaths. We have shown that collection of
public-health information is possible even during periods of extreme
violence. Our results need further verification and should lead to changes
to reduce non-combatant deaths from air strikes.
Read complete
report at
http://image.thelancet.com/extras/04art10342web.pdf
Bulatlat
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