The U.S. Squeeze Play on Arroyo

Because of the U.S. “disappointment” to the pullout from Iraq, Arroyo could try to mend fences by becoming more receptive to U.S. demands. She would welcome and accept more so-called support from the U.S. in the war against terror.

By Andres Rebana
Bulatlat

She cited the century-old relationship of the U.S. and the Philippines and the wars both countries had fought together. “No president can break that bond because it is held together by a permanent history. Our partnership for a better world is stronger than ever," Arroyo said.

Roland G. Simbulan, an expert on U.S.-Philippine relations who wrote the book The Bases of Our Insecurity, couldn’t agree more. Arroyo’s decision to withdraw the small Philippine contingent from Iraq and the “disappointment” it caused the U.S. and its allies in Iraq, Simbulan said, could actually strengthen Manila’s relationship with Washington.

Simbulan said that while the pullout certainly weakened the legitimacy of the U.S. invasion of Iraq (the Iragi insurgents have since kidnapped more foreigners, telling the hostage’s countries to follow the Philippine example), the Arroyo administration, which was among the first to support the invasion, never questioned the invasion after the dela Cruz incident.

“The Arroyo government is not actually condemning the actions of the U.S. It has not turned critical of the U.S.,” Simbulan said.

Indeed, because of the U.S. “disappointment,” Arroyo could try to mend fences by becoming more receptive to U.S. demands, Simbulan said. She could welcome and accept more so-called support from the U.S. in the war against terror, he said.

Already, he pointed out, the U.S. has been wanting to deploy its forces in and around the Malacca Straits, which is shared by Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore. The straits, according to the Malacca Straits Research and Development Centre  is one of the oldest and busiest shaping lanes in the world, “a primary conduit for the movement of cargo and human traffics between Indo-European region and the rest of Asia and Australia.” The number of ships that pass through it is double the number that pass the Suez Canal and thrice as many as those that pass through the Panama Canal.

“A terrorist strike in the 630-mile-long Malacca Straits would severely dislocate world trade for months. A quarter of the world's commerce passes through this waterway, including 10 million barrels of crude oil heading daily from the Persian Gulf toward China, South Korea and Japan. About 80 percent of Japan's oil passes through the Malacca Straits. Closure of the Straits in the event of a terrorist attack would require ships to travel an additional 994 miles from the Gulf. Freight rates would increase sharply. In all, the Straits accounts for a third of the world's trade and half of the world's oil supply,” wrote Sudha Ramachandran in Asia Times.

In short, the U.S. and its allies have huge economic interests in the straits, so that Admiral Thomas Fargo, commander of the U.S. Pacific Command, declared in March this year Washington’s intention to deploy its military forces in the straits, which has been a favorite playing ground of pirates. This proposal has been shot down but what’s to stop the U.S. from using the Philippines, particularly Mindanao, as an alternative military post to protect its interests in Southeast Asia?

The military exercises in Mindanao, analysts have said, were designed not so much to go after the Abu Sayyaf and the Jemaah Islamiyah but to establish American foothold in the southern Philippines. Although the Balikatan exercises were started in 2002 and were supposed to end last year, U.S. troops have never left the Southern Command headquarters in Zamboanga City.

The venue of the new round of exercises that are to begin next week is Carmen, North Cotababto. Already, 30 American soldiers have arrived. What’s more telling is the fact that the U.S. military will use the General Santos Airport that the U.S. had built through the USAID as well as the other U.S.-built facilities in that area of Mindanao, particularly Sarangani.

Keep in mind that all these arrangements were done prior to the pullout. The question now is, with Arroyo eager to placate Washington, what’s to stop her from giving in to the whims and demands of the Americans? As Simbulan pointed out, the U.S. will definitely find ways to capitalize on its supposed disappointment with Arroyo.

During her speech on Friday, Arroyo restated the “eight realities… that the country responds to in order to protect the interests of the Philippines.” On top of the list is “that China, Japan and U.S. have a determining influence in the security situation and economic evolution of East Asia.”

This can only mean that giving future concessions to the U.S. is not out of the question, which only belies the supposed straining of Arroyo’s relationship with Washington.

Or, as Jose Ma. Sison pointed out this week: “The withdrawal of  Filipino mercenary troops  from Iraq is welcomed by the Filipino people.  But it is not yet a clear indication of any change in the Arroyo policy of collaborating with the U.S. in acts of war and repression under the pretext of anti-terrorism.”

Because of the “collaboration of the puppet regime,” he said, “the U.S. is escalating its military intervention in the Philippines and making provocations against nearby countries under the guise of joint military exercises.” Bulatlat

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