4 Million Iraqis Seen to Die in U.S. War 
Confidential UN report says 7.4 million will need immediate humanitarian intervention

The Gulf War of 1990-1991and post-war sanctions reduced Iraq from a first-rate to a pre-industrial economy and its health and education services to third world standards. All these could further reduce Iraq to Stone Age – as many U.S. war hawks have predicted unabashedly – especially in the event of a nuclear holocaust which two recent reports, one written by a United Nations secret mission, say could easily kill four million Iraqis.

By Bobby Tuazon 
Bulatlat.com

Up to four million people could die in a war on Iraq and another 3 million most of them children would suffer starvation, recent reports by a group of international doctors and scientists and by a United Nations secret team revealed. Without immediate international humanitarian intervention, the widespread post-war famine and starvation could bring the total number of deaths to 7 million, the reports showed.

Both major reports are widely unpublicized especially in the Philippines. The UN confidential report was leaked to an American NGO and posted on the website of the London-based Campaign Against Sanctions in Iraq only last month. Both reports also warn about the dire effects of the war on civilians, who are expected to be greatly displaced in proportion to lesser casualties for combatants on both sides of the conflict.

Pentagon says U.S. casualties would be insignificant considering the use of high-tech weapons that reduce the number of deaths. However, independent estimates say the U.S. military’s fearless forecast may be unlikely if the war turns into a man-to-man combat inside Baghdad and other cities, for which Iraqi forces are expected to show a strong resistance.

Nuclear holocaust

Medact, the British affiliate of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War (IPPNW, winner of the 1985 Nobel Peace Prize), in its Nov. 12, 2002 report, “ Collateral Damage: The Health and Environmental Costs of War on Iraq,” said its estimate on the number of fatalities is based on the likely scenario of a nuclear holocaust. U.S. officials, led by President George Bush, and their British defense counterparts have warned about the use of nuclear missiles to pre-empt the possible resort to bio-chemical weapons by Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.

In a confidential report it issued Dec. 2 last year, a UN secret mission predicted the number of direct and indirect casualties at 500,000 – assuming the absence of nuclear strikes by the United States. However, another 5.21 million Iraqis will be highly vulnerable to severe health conditions while 3.03 million – mostly pre-schoolers as well as pregnant and lactating women - will suffer from malnutrition, the UN report, “Likely Human Scenarios,” revealed.

Immediate humanitarian intervention

Regardless of Medact’s nuclear war scenario, the UN report places the number of Iraqi civilians needing “immediate humanitarian intervention” at 7.4 million, including a big number of refugees. Millions of refugees will go to Iran, Saudi Arabia and other neighboring countries, the UN group also said.

The UN report also does not the rule out the outbreak of epidemics such as cholera, dysentery, measles, meningitis and other diseases affecting mostly children, women and the elderly.

The Medact report, written by international health consultant Jane Savage, was based on a fact-finding mission conducted in Iraq by a group of scientists and physicians from the Royal College of Physicians, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, University College of London and the New York-based Columbia University. The US-based IPPNW has affiliates in the Philippines, Australia, Japan, India, Canada, Germany, The Netherlands, Guatemala and other countries.

The UN confidential report, on the other hand, also cites studies made by its health sectoral working group in Iraq as well as by the World Health Organization and UNICEF.

Both reports forecast a catastrophe far worse than the first Gulf War in 1990-1991 and not seen since World War II. But WWII in its peak lasted for four years while the imminent U.S. war on Iraq is estimated to last by only a few weeks up to a month of intense fighting.

Damage to global economy

The effects of this war on the lives, economy, health and environment of Iraq is expected to last for several years or could even lead to more wars in the entire Middle East, a likely scenario confirmed by members of the Arab League of Nations. But Medact also warned that the U.S. war could damage the global economy and thus indirectly harm the health and well-being of millions more people across the world.

Medact also said credible estimates of the total possible deaths on all sides during the conflict and the following three months could reach over 260,000 while civil war within Iraq could add another 20,000 deaths. Post-war adverse health effects could add another 200,000 deaths.

“If nuclear weapons were used the death toll could reach 3,900,000. In all scenarios the majority of casualties will be civilians,” the health group said.

Medact also warned: “The aftermath of a ‘conventional’ war could include civil war, famine and epidemics, millions of refugees and displaced people, catastrophic effects on children’s health and development, economic collapse including failure of agriculture and manufacturing, and a requirement for long-term peacekeeping. Destabilization and possible regime change in countries neighboring Iraq is also possible, as well as more terrorist attacks. Global economic crisis may be triggered through trade reduction and soaring oil prices, with particularly devastating consequences for developing countries.”

From first-rate to third-rate

Medact warns of more destruction given that the first Gulf War, prolonged air strikes and subsequent economic and health sanctions have reduced Iraq’s first-world rate economy as well as its internationally-renowned health and education services to pre-industrial, third-world level making the whole nation defenseless against renewed attacks by the United States. Most infrastructures and government facilities that have been rebuilt since 1991 – including power, water, health and food distribution facilities – will be severely damaged thus undermining the Iraqi state’s capability to deliver essential goods and services to its people.

The UN report says that 16 million out of Iraq’s 26.5 million people depend on food essentials distributed by the Iraqi government. Compared to Afghanistan which is largely rural and whose villages are relatively self-reliant, Iraq is highly-urbanized and its cities including Baghdad capital where six million live are the likeliest targets of U.S. air and land warfare.

The Gulf War 10 years ago accounted for some 206,000 deaths, more than half of them civilians, on the Iraqi side. But Iraqi and international humanitarian groups also reported that subsequent UN-supported post-war sanctions unilaterally imposed by the U.S. government resulted in the death of nearly a million civilians including children. Bulatlat.com

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