Latin America: Political Changes and US Response

The mild response of the US to the regime changes resulting from the Latin American elections of 2006 can easily be explained by the fact that they did not produce any consequential socio-economic structural changes, at least for the foreseeable future.

The clearest demonstration of the marginal effects of ‘center-left’ electoral victories is the case of the electoral victory of Lula who made it clear to even his own most ardent intellectual supporters (Frei Betto, Emir Sader, Joao Pedro Stedile) that he considered ‘leftism an infantile disorder’ (La Jornada 12/14/2006), a remark much appreciated in business circles throughout the hemisphere. No doubt Wall Street was pleased that the Brazilian ‘Workers Party’ voted to double Congressional salaries from$6500 USD to $12000 USD per month (and doubling each Congress member’s individual monthly budget to $75,000 USD) while increasing the minimum wage by $7 USD a month from $159 to $166USD (about 1.7% after inflation) (Financial Times December 16-17, 2006). One out of five Brazilian Congress members (many from Lula’s coalition) are currently under investigation for corruption. Wall Street speculators who also were recently investigated for fraud and yet received huge year-end bonuses would feel a real identity of condition with Brazilian lawmakers who doubled their salaries, while awaiting criminal charges.

Contrary to White House expectations, but much to its liking, Evo Morales’ regime pursued orthodox, austere fiscal policies aimed at budget surpluses, eschewed any redistributive policies (virtually no land, mining or energy expropriations). While Morales demobilized the social movements and focused on endless legal procedures, the oligarchy regrouped, expanded its power base in Santa Cruz and threatens to bring down the government. While Washington’s oligarchic Bolivian clients advanced toward power (La Jornada December 16, 2006) Evo Morales continued his self-destructive policies of symbolic radical populist rhetoric and greater concessions to the elites. Washington has maintained a foot in both camps, providing over $60 million dollars in foreign aid to Morales and untold millions to the opposition in Santa Cruz organizing massive ‘separatist’ demonstrations (HoyBolivia.com December 16, 2006).

Washington’s ‘soft-line’ negotiators (Shannon) strengthened their position vis-a-vis the White House’s ‘hard line’ policy toward Venezuela by pointing to Hugo Chavez’ electoral victory (63% of the vote) as a reason for a rapprochement (La Jornada, December 14, 2006). Shannon has advanced the argument in Washington that a significant sector of the Chavez government was open to a negotiated pact with involves freezing the status quo, softening criticism of US imperial policies, consolidating oil and gas agreements and blocking any steps toward socializing the economy.

Perspectives for 2007

The international position of the US during 2007 will continue to deteriorate – the coming massive military escalation in Iraq, the large-scale transfer of arms for Israel to threaten or attack Iran, Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas (or all simultaneously) – will not lessen the armed resistance in Iraq. A US-backed Israeli attack on Iran will extend warfare throughout the Gulf States including Saudi Arabia. On December 15, 2006, Bush presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Israeli extremist, Natan Sharansky– advocate for the genocidal ‘transfer’ of all Palestinians from ‘Greater Israel’ – symbolizing the meeting of the minds of US imperial militarism and Israeli brutal colonial expansionism. The total discarding of any new diplomatic initiative (like the recommendations of Baker’s Iraq Study Group), is the result of the combined strength of the powerful pro-Israel Lobby and the Bush-Cheney-Rice White House.

Washington, overextended militarily in the Middle East, will follow its ‘two-track’ policy in Latin America. The White House will support incumbent clients (like Uribe, Calderon and Garcia); the State, Treasury and Commerce Departments will engage in trade agreements with more ‘autonomous’ neo-liberal regimes like Lula, Bachelet, Vazquez and Kirchner), encouraging greater distance from Cuba and Venezuela and closer diplomatic relations with the US. With regard to Bolivia, Washington will continue to pressure Morales to make further concessions to the far-right civic-oligarchic coalition based in Santa Cruz, allowing the local business elite to ‘carry the ball’ for US imperial interests. In Venezuela, the ‘two track policy’ will attempt to deepen the political divisions in the Chavista movement, in order to block new Chavez initiatives toward greater socialization and in order to promote new political configuration of ‘moderate oppositionists’ and liberal Chavistas.

The weakest link in Washington’s projected strategy in Latin America is the re-emergence of socio-political movements, like those which burst forth in the late 1990’s and first years of the new century: The MST in Brazil, the workers, peasant and Indian movements in Bolivia and Ecuador and the mass uprising in Oaxaca and electoral protests in Mexico are in the process of re-grouping, none having suffered a historic defeat. All the major popular movements retain their organizational structures and have recovered their political independence. They will soon be capable of once again engaging in major uprisings and political confrontations with the oligarchies in power or with their shock troops in the streets.

The New Year does not promise ‘more of the same’: it will start with a major US military escalation in the Middle East but it will likely end with a greater military debacle, ensuring deepening political crises and increased economic instability both in the Middle East, the US and Latin America. The weakening of the US political regime will open a window of opportunity for a decisive break with the US Empire, providing that the re-emerging social-political movements can overcome the obstacles posed by the new political elites of ex-leftists and traditional oligarchs. Posted by (Bulatlat.com)

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